So the two semi-finalists from the Group B have been decided. It may have come as a surprise to most fans to not have the South Africans go through to the semi-finals, and with the fact that England has gone through at their expense. In fact, after having lost the ODI series to Australia by a 6-1 margin, not too many sides gave the English too much hope, but for now, they are in running to become the seventh team to win the Champions Trophy. The other side from Group B is New Zealand, the winners of the second edition of the Champions Trophy – or the Mini World Cup – as it was known then.
New Zealand has topped their group, which essentially means that they will play the second placed side from the other group. England, as a result will face up to the top placed side in the group A. For now, only Pakistan is sure to go through to the semi-finals from the other group, with Australia having one foot inside the door. India has an outside chance, but will need the gods to help them with various permutations and combinations going their way to clinch the game. However, it is not yet sure, which team will top the group A, thus, it is not yet known which teams will play whom in the semi-finals.
The entire puzzle will be very easily resolved if Australia beat Pakistan in the first game of the final days of league matches. In that case, Australia will end on five points, whereas Pakistan will have four. Even if India beat the men from Caribbean in the last game, they will be left with only three, and Australia and Pakistan will go through as number one and two sides respectively. This also means that Australia and England will continue with their ODI rivalry which had seen Australia win the last series 6-1, whereas Pakistan will take on New Zealand.
In case of an abandoned game, both the sides, Australia and Pakistan, will share the points. And in that case, Pakistan will top the group, whereas Australia will be second to face England and New Zealand at Centurion and Johannesburg respectively.
The true fun begins if Pakistan beats Australia. In that case, Pakistan will top the group with six points, and will face England in the semi-finals. The other semi-final will be between New Zealand and either of India or Australia. This will be decided on the basis of the India-West Indies game.
If the India-West Indies match at Johannesburg is abandoned for some reason, then Australia will go through and face New Zealand in the semi-finals. However, if India beats West Indies, it will be down to the net run-rate scenario between India and Australia, as both the sides would then have three points each.
For starters, if Pakistan beats Australia and India beats West Indies, let us assume the worst-case scenario that Pakistan wins the game off the last ball or win by a solitary run. In that case, the Aussies will end with an NRR of 0.49; something that India will need to better to qualify for the knock-out. India has a current NRR of -1.08, which means that the team will have to play some really excellent cricket to overcome that deficit.
In this case, if West Indies bat first and are bowled out for 150, India will need to score the runs in 29.2 overs to end with a better NRR than West Indies. However, more runs that India concede, the tougher it will become for them to chase. So, to chase down 201, India will need to do that in 31.1 overs, whereas 251 and 301 will need 32.3 and 34.1 overs respectively. As we can see, the proportion by which the target and the number of overs needed to score them is not the same. Looking around, and talking of the Johannesburg wicket, if West Indies bat first, one can be looking at the score of around 225, which India will need to score in 32.1 overs to qualify for the semi-finals, which means that they will have to bat at more than seven runs per over; not an easy task by any imagination!
With same scenario of Australia losing by one run or off the last ball, if India were to bat first and score 200, they will have to restrict the West Indian side to 96 to end with a better run-rate than Australia. A score of 300 would mean that the Indians need to get the West Indies all out for 196, and so on. This means, that if Australia loses by one run, the Indians will need to win by 104 runs to qualify!
Let us take a realistic couple of examples. Pakistan bats first and gets to 260. Aussies manage only 240. West Indies, in their game then score 225. India will ave to get those runs in 35 overs to win a place in the semi-finals. What will give the Indian supporters hope is the form of Pakistan, and a distinct possibility that they can beat Australia.
